By Richard Jasinski·Updated 22 September 2026
Twenty months in, the picture is clearer and more specific than the headlines. Fees rose about 14%, not 20%. The sector has lost 30,000 pupils, the steepest fall on record, and still fewer than the Treasury forecast. The much-quoted closure figure does not survive scrutiny. And the Supreme Court hears the challenge in December.
Start here · The fee ledger
Set your situation below. The ledger tallies the cumulative cost through to the end of school, and shows how much of it is the VAT. Tiers use published 2026/27 fees and the Independent Schools Council's January 2026 averages, grown at 4% a year.
Set your options above to see the total.
See what this changes ↓The one-line answer: VAT added roughly 14% to fees rather than the full 20%, the sector has lost 30,000 pupils since January 2025, the steepest fall on record, and the Supreme Court hears the challenge on 1–2 December 2026. The closure story is the part most reporting gets wrong: schools closed at a slightly lower rate after VAT than before it.
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Twenty months after 20% VAT was applied to UK private school fees, the sector's own numbers are in and they tell a more specific story than either side of the argument has been telling. Fees rose by about 14% on average, not 20%. Pupil numbers have fallen by 30,000 since the charge began, the largest drop since the Independent Schools Council started counting. And the closure figure that has done most of the political work, "more than 100 schools" is real but misleading: roughly the same number of schools closed in the equivalent period before VAT, and more new ones opened than shut. The policy has done real damage to the schools that were already marginal. It has not emptied the sector.
The 20% headline, the ~14% reality, and who paid the full rate
The Treasury's stated expectation was that fees would rise by roughly 10%, not 20%, because schools recover VAT on their own costs and would absorb part of the charge. The real figure landed higher. Analysis of 964 schools found that about half raised fees by 15% or more, and about a fifth passed on the full 20%. The sector average settled around 14%.
Premium boarding schools largely passed through the whole increase, to families who were the least price-sensitive. Schools serving households already stretched by the fees absorbed more, in some cases subsidising the increase for existing pupils while charging it in full to new entrants. Those arrangements are not permanent, and their sustainability is a fair question to put to a bursar at an open day.
Here is what the published 2026/27 fee schedules actually say. Every figure below is taken from the school's own fees page and includes VAT unless noted.
| School or benchmark | 2026/27 fee | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham Ladies' College (Sixth Form, new entrant, boarding) | £22,740/term ≈ £68,220/yr | Its most expensive band; continuing Sixth Form boarders pay £21,300 |
| Harrow School | £21,990/term ≈ £65,970/yr | Boys, full boarding; covers tuition, board and laundry |
| Eton College | £21,891/term ≈ £65,673/yr | Boys, full boarding; three halves per year |
| Winchester College (boarding) | £20,700/term ≈ £62,100/yr | Day place £15,318/term, ≈ £45,954/yr |
| ISC average boarding fee | £14,980/term ≈ £44,940/yr | January 2026 census, excluding VAT, about £53,900 with it |
| ISC average day fee | £6,226/term ≈ £18,678/yr | January 2026 census, excluding VAT, about £22,400 with it |
The gap between the two ends of that table is the thing worth noticing. A place at Eton costs roughly three times the sector's average boarding fee, and the schools at the top of the market were the ones best placed to pass the tax straight through.
Annual cost by tier, 2026/27, and how much of it is the tax
Fee, excluding VATThe 20% VAT
30,000 fewer children, and the steepest fall the ISC has recorded
This is the part of the policy that has moved fastest. The ISC's January 2026 census, covering 1,455 schools, counted 526,611 pupils, down 19,029 on the previous January, a fall of 3.5%, or 3.8% on a like-for-like basis. Taken with the previous year, the ISC puts the loss at 30,000 pupils since VAT was introduced, which its chief executive Julie Robinson describes as "the biggest reduction in pupil numbers across independent schools since ISC records began".
The falls cluster exactly where you would expect them to if price were the driver: at the points where a family makes an active decision to enter or stay. Reception intake fell 5.2%, Year 7 fell 5.6%, and Year 12, the Sixth Form entry point, and the easiest place to switch to a state or international alternative, fell 6.6%.
But the departures are running below the government's own forecast, not above it. Pre-implementation modelling expected around 35,000 to 37,000 fewer pupils in private schools, with roughly 35,000 moving into the state sector. The actual figure after twenty months is about 30,000. The ISC's position is that the impact is greater than ministers predicted; the official numbers in the House of Lords Library briefing, updated in September 2026, do not support that reading. Both things can be true at once: the fall is the steepest the sector has recorded, and it is still smaller than the Treasury planned for.
There is a counter-current inside the figures that rarely gets reported. Independent special school rolls went up, from 32,149 to 37,249 pupils in England, because SEND places are exempt from the charge and state provision is under strain. Strip those out and the mainstream independent sector in England is at 523,006 pupils, or 6.3% of all school pupils, down from 6.4%.
The international story is quieter and, for the schools that rely on it, more serious. Non-UK pupils whose parents live overseas fell to 22,941 in January 2026, from 25,526 a year earlier, about 10% in a single year. That cohort pays full fees, cross-subsidises bursaries, and is the most mobile of all.
Fee assistance went up rather than down: £2.1 billion across 183,705 pupils, or 34.9% of the total, with 8,934 paying nothing at all. Schools have protected their bursary rolls through the squeeze. And the measure is raising roughly what it was meant to, £1.51 billion in 2025/26, forecast to reach £1.7 billion by 2029/30, with the removal of business rates relief adding £70–90 million a year.
The most-quoted number in this debate is the one that survives scrutiny least
"More than 100 private schools have closed because of VAT" has been repeated so often it now reads as settled. It is not, and anyone making a decision on the strength of it should know why.
BBC Radio 4's More or Less checked the claim in January 2026 against the Department for Education's own database. It found 104 independent schools in England and Wales closed in the 18 months after the change of government, against 108 in the preceding 18 months, before VAT existed. Over the same period 165 new private schools opened, so the total number of private schools went up. Eighteen of the closures were special schools, which are exempt from the charge altogether. Several were tiny, with single-figure rolls.
The official count says the same thing from the other direction. Between January 2025 and January 2026 there was a net reduction of 47 mainstream independent schools in England, and a net increase of 88 independent special schools, which are exempt from the charge. On the raw arithmetic, more private schools opened than closed.
That is not the same as saying VAT did nothing. The ISC counted over 50 schools closed or announcing closure in the first seven months alone, and reported a net loss of more than 60 mainstream schools in the year to June 2026 once special schools are stripped out. Julie Robinson's formulation is the honest one: "While there is a combination of factors contributing to school closures, for many the government's decision to tax education has proven a bridge too far." VAT was the last weight on schools that were already carrying too much, small prep and day schools, thin reserves, shrinking local rolls.
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson has gone the other way, telling critics in June 2026 that more private schools have opened than closed. On the raw count she is right. On what happened to the 30,000 families who left, she is answering a different question.
The triple tax pressure: VAT is not the only change hitting the sector. From April 2025, private schools in England with charitable status lost their business rates relief. At the same time, the increase in employer National Insurance raised staffing costs across every school. The ISC calls the combination a "triple whammy" and it is a better explanation of the closures than VAT on its own.
Twice upheld, now under appeal, and no longer a closed question
The policy has been through two courts and lost neither. The High Court dismissed a human rights challenge brought by parents and faith-based schools in June 2025, and the Court of Appeal upheld it on 27 February 2026, holding that Parliament is entitled to set tax policy and that there is no legal right to tax-advantaged private education.
What has changed since this page last covered it is significant. On 22 May 2026 the Supreme Court granted permission to appeal in R (BYL) v Chancellor of the Exchequer, UKSC 2026/0056, and has listed a full hearing for 1 and 2 December 2026. Permission is not a signal of the outcome, and the appellants have lost twice. But the question is now formally open at the highest court in the country, with a judgement likely in 2027.
Nothing changes in the meantime. VAT at 20% remains in force under the Finance Act 2025, schools must charge it, and families should budget on the assumption it stays. Anyone planning around a possible refund is planning around a long shot.
Small and stretched went under; large and international absorbed it
The pattern is consistent. Schools with fewer than 200 pupils, serving families who were already at the edge of affordability, had no room to absorb a 20% charge and no reserves to bridge it. Schools with high fees, strong endowments and significant international enrolment took it in their stride, and a handful, able to reclaim VAT on capital projects they had been deferring, came out of the change financially better off than they went in.
The squeeze is real even near the top. Marlborough College, with fees above £60,000, cancelled its summer school after five decades and cut holiday energy use, citing the combined cost pressure. When a school of that standing trims, the schools below it have already run out of things to trim.
If you are weighing a specific school rather than the sector, the questions that matter now are financial as much as academic: reserves, roll trend over three years, debt, and how much of the fee increase the school absorbed rather than charged. Our guide to how to evaluate a private school sets out what to ask and what the answers tell you.
A one-time step-change layered on a 3–5% annual climb
UK private school fees have historically risen 3–5% a year, ahead of inflation. VAT was a one-off structural step on top of that trend, onto a base that now also carries full business rates and higher employer National Insurance. The underlying climb has not stopped: stripping VAT out, the ISC reports an average annual fee increase of 4.4% in the most recent year. Compounded, that matters as much over a school career as the tax does.
For a child entering prep school at seven in 2026 and boarding through to eighteen, the cumulative cost at 4% annual growth from today's published fees runs to roughly £750,000–£900,000 at the premium end. At the ISC average boarding fee it is closer to £620,000, and at the average day fee about £260,000. Those are the honest planning numbers, and the ledger at the top of this page will total them for your own case.
One practical note that catches families out: HMRC's anti-forestalling rules mean fees prepaid after 29 July 2024 for terms from January 2025 onward are still taxable. The advance-payment schemes that were widely marketed in 2024 did not, for the most part, work. The current position is set out in HMRC's guidance on applying VAT to private school fees.
Where the comparison becomes necessary, not optional
For a family with three children at premium boarding schools, the annual bill is now around £198,000 against roughly £165,000 before VAT. Across a seven-year senior school career that is an increase of well over £200,000 on a commitment already past £1.3 million, before rates relief and National Insurance feed through into the next round of fee rises.
At that level the comparison with schooling abroad stops being an interesting thought and becomes ordinary financial diligence. It is also a comparison that cannot be run on tuition alone: residency, tax position, the cost of running two households, and whether the family actually wants to move all weigh more than the fee difference. The relevant question is rarely "is Geneva cheaper" but "are we moving anyway, and if so, does this settle it".
That last part is where the numbers have genuinely shifted. We track where families in this position are actually going in where UK non-doms are actually relocating, compare the residency routes in Italy's flat tax against Portugal and Greece, and set out the visa options in the cheapest golden visas in Europe.
How many UK private schools have closed because of VAT?
Fewer than the headlines suggest, and the closure rate did not rise. BBC Radio 4's More or Less checked the figures in January 2026 and found 104 independent schools closed in England and Wales in the 18 months after the election, against 108 in the preceding 18 months under the previous government, while 165 new private schools opened over the same period. Eighteen of the closures were special schools, which are exempt from the VAT charge. The Independent Schools Council reported over 50 schools closed or announcing closure in the first seven months of the policy, and a net loss of more than 60 mainstream schools in the year to June 2026. Closures concentrated in small prep and day schools, many of which were already in financial difficulty before VAT, and falling birth rates are affecting primary rolls across both sectors.
Has the VAT on private school fees been overturned in court?
Not so far, but it is not settled either. The High Court dismissed a human rights challenge in June 2025 and the Court of Appeal upheld the policy on 27 February 2026. The Supreme Court then granted permission to appeal on 22 May 2026 in R (BYL) v Chancellor of the Exchequer, case UKSC 2026/0056, and has listed a full hearing for 1 and 2 December 2026. Until that judgement, VAT at 20% remains in force under the Finance Act 2025 and schools must continue to charge it. Families should plan on the tax staying, while noting that the legal position is now genuinely open in a way it was not in early 2026.
How much have fees actually risen since VAT was introduced?
Around 14% on average rather than the full 20%, because schools recover VAT on their own costs and many absorbed part of the charge. The Treasury projected roughly 10%. Analysis of 964 schools found about half raised fees by 15% or more and about a fifth passed on the full 20%. Premium boarding schools generally passed through the whole increase. Published 2026/27 boarding fees now include VAT: Eton charges £21,891 a term, Harrow £21,990, and Winchester £20,700. The Independent Schools Council's January 2026 census puts the average termly day fee at £6,226 and the average termly boarding fee at £14,980, both before VAT.
Does the VAT apply to scholarships and bursaries?
The VAT applies to the published tuition fee, and bursaries reduce the amount the family pays; they do not provide VAT exemption. A family paying 50% of fees after a bursary still pays VAT on the 50% they are charged. The school pays VAT on the full fee amount, which it recovers from the family's payment. Families receiving large bursaries are therefore in a better relative position than before VAT, since the VAT amount on their reduced fee is proportionally smaller. Fee assistance across ISC schools reached £2.1 billion in January 2026, supporting 183,705 pupils, or 34.9% of the total.
Are sports, music, meals and extracurricular activities subject to VAT?
The charge applies to education and boarding. Ancillary services supplied separately from the education contract, some extracurricular activities, nursery care for children below compulsory school age, and holiday clubs, can be treated differently. Meals have proved the contentious case: the Treasury indicated school meals would remain exempt, while HMRC guidance holds that where meals are bundled into a single fee the whole supply is taxable, so many bursars charge VAT on them rather than risk a penalty. Because the treatment follows how each school structures its invoicing, ask your bursar for the breakdown applying to your own fee note.
Can grandparents contribute to school fees tax-efficiently?
Yes. Grandparents can use their annual £3,000 gifting allowance free of inheritance tax, and gifts made from surplus income, where the gifting does not affect the donor's standard of living, may be exempt from IHT under the 'normal expenditure out of income' exemption. For grandparents with significant investment income who wish to contribute regularly to grandchildren's school fees, this can be structured to reduce the estate systematically. Family trusts can also be used, though they are complex and require professional legal and tax advice.
Sources and further reading
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Fees are taken from each school's published 2026/27 fee schedule and include VAT unless stated; sector averages are from the ISC Census 2026 and exclude VAT, as the ISC reports them. Pupil numbers, bursary totals and international enrolment are from the same census, taken in January 2026. Closure figures are as reported by the ISC and as checked by BBC More or Less against the Department for Education database. The calculator produces indicative estimates from those published figures at 4% annual growth, for planning illustration only; it is not a quote. Fee structures and school circumstances change; verify current fees directly with individual schools. This article is for information only and is not financial, tax or legal advice; the inheritance tax position in particular depends on individual circumstances and should be checked with a qualified adviser.
It is published as independent editorial guidance.
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